Chicago Area Weather Blog Forums

Weather Forums


    Apr. 20-24th Severe Weather Potential

    Share

    Thundercloud
    Thunderstorm
    Thunderstorm

    Posts : 24
    Join date : 2008-04-14
    Age : 27
    Location : Rochester, NY

    Apr. 20-24th Severe Weather Potential

    Post  Thundercloud on Mon Apr 14, 2008 5:24 pm

    I know it is a long way out but now we have a lot of time to watch this storm evolve








    Chicago Storm
    Admin
    Admin

    Posts : 70
    Join date : 2008-04-11
    Location : Streamwood, IL

    Re: Apr. 20-24th Severe Weather Potential

    Post  Chicago Storm on Mon Apr 14, 2008 7:06 pm

    The title of htis topic has been switched from 4/27 severe possibility to Apr. 23-26th severe possibility. As there will be several waves that move through and bring in big warmth and the potential for severe storms.

    Thundercloud
    Thunderstorm
    Thunderstorm

    Posts : 24
    Join date : 2008-04-14
    Age : 27
    Location : Rochester, NY

    Re: Apr. 20-24th Severe Weather Potential

    Post  Thundercloud on Mon Apr 14, 2008 7:39 pm

    That sounds good

    jdrenken
    Thunderstorm
    Thunderstorm

    Posts : 17
    Join date : 2008-04-13
    Age : 44
    Location : Central Missouri

    Re: Apr. 20-24th Severe Weather Potential

    Post  jdrenken on Mon Apr 14, 2008 9:49 pm

    Chicago Storm wrote:The title of htis topic has been switched from 4/27 severe possibility to Apr. 23-26th severe possibility. As there will be several waves that move through and bring in big warmth and the potential for severe storms.

    Yeah...on the Accuweather forums, we have no fewer than 3 possible severe weather topics for the days starting 4/17 thru 4/23...and that doesn't count the future 4/28 storm.

    Chicago Storm
    Admin
    Admin

    Posts : 70
    Join date : 2008-04-11
    Location : Streamwood, IL

    Re: Apr. 20-24th Severe Weather Potential

    Post  Chicago Storm on Mon Apr 14, 2008 9:53 pm

    jdrenken wrote:
    Chicago Storm wrote:The title of htis topic has been switched from 4/27 severe possibility to Apr. 23-26th severe possibility. As there will be several waves that move through and bring in big warmth and the potential for severe storms.

    Yeah...on the Accuweather forums, we have no fewer than 3 possible severe weather topics for the days starting 4/17 thru 4/23...and that doesn't count the future 4/28 storm.
    I'm going to try and keep it a bit more neat in hearere isn't much confusion about severe weather days/storms.

    Chicago Storm
    Admin
    Admin

    Posts : 70
    Join date : 2008-04-11
    Location : Streamwood, IL

    Re: Apr. 20-24th Severe Weather Potential

    Post  Chicago Storm on Tue Apr 15, 2008 7:00 pm

    This could be a good outbreak....warm temps., moisture, and dynamics will be there, but how storng will the cap be.

    MattfromIndy
    Thunderstorm
    Thunderstorm

    Posts : 3
    Join date : 2008-04-14

    Re: Apr. 20-24th Severe Weather Potential

    Post  MattfromIndy on Tue Apr 15, 2008 7:12 pm

    Chicago Storm wrote:This could be a good outbreak....warm temps., moisture, and dynamics will be there, but how storng will the cap be.


    Yes the darn cap... but it has to break sometime!!! Good forum by the way Chicago storm.. Very Happy

    Chicago Storm
    Admin
    Admin

    Posts : 70
    Join date : 2008-04-11
    Location : Streamwood, IL

    Re: Apr. 20-24th Severe Weather Potential

    Post  Chicago Storm on Tue Apr 15, 2008 8:49 pm

    The SPC CAPE for Tuesday evening is all the way up to 4000. Thats pretty high, and with a temp. near 80F and dew points of 65-70F,this could mean explosive thunderstorm development.


    Last edited by Chicago Storm on Wed Apr 16, 2008 7:25 am; edited 1 time in total

    jdrenken
    Thunderstorm
    Thunderstorm

    Posts : 17
    Join date : 2008-04-13
    Age : 44
    Location : Central Missouri

    Re: Apr. 20-24th Severe Weather Potential

    Post  jdrenken on Tue Apr 15, 2008 9:39 pm

    I touched base on that in accuweather forum.

    EDIT: 500mb vv is -4 -- -6 in the same region as the CAPE. Surface temps are going to be mid-70's with dew points in the upper 60's.

    Chicago Storm
    Admin
    Admin

    Posts : 70
    Join date : 2008-04-11
    Location : Streamwood, IL

    Re: Apr. 20-24th Severe Weather Potential

    Post  Chicago Storm on Tue Apr 15, 2008 10:01 pm

    jdrenken wrote:I touched base on that in accuweather forum.

    EDIT: 500mb vv is -4 -- -6 in the same region as the CAPE. Surface temps are going to be mid-70's with dew points in the upper 60's.
    This could turn out to be a pretty big outbreak. But thats what we said last week and it wasn't that bad, so we will see.

    Chicago Storm
    Admin
    Admin

    Posts : 70
    Join date : 2008-04-11
    Location : Streamwood, IL

    Re: Apr. 20-24th Severe Weather Potential

    Post  Chicago Storm on Wed Apr 16, 2008 7:26 am

    This mornings models are not going as strong with possible severe storms, but the strong dynamics are still ther including a 3000 SPC CAPE.

    jdrenken
    Thunderstorm
    Thunderstorm

    Posts : 17
    Join date : 2008-04-13
    Age : 44
    Location : Central Missouri

    Re: Apr. 20-24th Severe Weather Potential

    Post  jdrenken on Wed Apr 16, 2008 8:31 am

    I'm thinking that the "x" will be in the Texarkana area. SLI's are pointing to -10 -- -12 for 00Z23APR!

    Chicago Storm
    Admin
    Admin

    Posts : 70
    Join date : 2008-04-11
    Location : Streamwood, IL

    Re: Apr. 20-24th Severe Weather Potential

    Post  Chicago Storm on Wed Apr 16, 2008 4:42 pm

    After the 12utc models the storm still looks very promising...but still a while off. The GFS still shows a 3500 SPC CAPE.

    centralplainsstorm
    Thunderstorm
    Thunderstorm

    Posts : 38
    Join date : 2008-04-13
    Age : 27
    Location : Ottawa, Illinois

    Re: Apr. 20-24th Severe Weather Potential

    Post  centralplainsstorm on Wed Apr 16, 2008 4:46 pm

    ok where do you get CAPE from for periods of time that are far out?

    Chicago Storm
    Admin
    Admin

    Posts : 70
    Join date : 2008-04-11
    Location : Streamwood, IL

    Re: Apr. 20-24th Severe Weather Potential

    Post  Chicago Storm on Wed Apr 16, 2008 4:47 pm

    centralplainsstorm wrote:ok where do you get CAPE from for periods of time that are far out?

    tornadoresearch15
    Thunderstorm
    Thunderstorm

    Posts : 14
    Join date : 2008-04-13
    Age : 26
    Location : Champaign/Urbana, Illinois

    Re: Apr. 20-24th Severe Weather Potential

    Post  tornadoresearch15 on Wed Apr 16, 2008 5:19 pm

    That map above has a good amount of CAPE here...around 2000 or so. My attention has been caught Smile

    weatherfan100
    Thunderstorm
    Thunderstorm

    Posts : 3
    Join date : 2008-04-12

    Re: Apr. 20-24th Severe Weather Potential

    Post  weatherfan100 on Wed Apr 16, 2008 8:28 pm

    i dont think there will be any severe weather over these days but rain and a few thunderstorms are likley

    jdrenken
    Thunderstorm
    Thunderstorm

    Posts : 17
    Join date : 2008-04-13
    Age : 44
    Location : Central Missouri

    Re: Apr. 20-24th Severe Weather Potential

    Post  jdrenken on Wed Apr 16, 2008 9:15 pm

    centralplainsstorm wrote:ok where do you get CAPE from for periods of time that are far out?

    There are a few different websites you can go.

    http://www.arl.noaa.gov/ready/animations.html

    Far right side is the long range model.

    College of Dupage

    Pick your model and go with it!

    Weather Underground

    I've started to lean away from this one.

    centralplainsstorm
    Thunderstorm
    Thunderstorm

    Posts : 38
    Join date : 2008-04-13
    Age : 27
    Location : Ottawa, Illinois

    Re: Apr. 20-24th Severe Weather Potential

    Post  centralplainsstorm on Wed Apr 16, 2008 9:38 pm


    jdrenken
    Thunderstorm
    Thunderstorm

    Posts : 17
    Join date : 2008-04-13
    Age : 44
    Location : Central Missouri

    Re: Apr. 20-24th Severe Weather Potential

    Post  jdrenken on Wed Apr 16, 2008 9:57 pm

    Chicago Storm wrote:After the 12utc models the storm still looks very promising...but still a while off. The GFS still shows a 3500 SPC CAPE.

    If you look at the Wichita Falls area, you'll see not 3500...but a 4109 SBCAPE Value! affraid


    Last edited by jdrenken on Thu Apr 17, 2008 8:31 am; edited 1 time in total

    Chicago Storm
    Admin
    Admin

    Posts : 70
    Join date : 2008-04-11
    Location : Streamwood, IL

    Re: Apr. 20-24th Severe Weather Potential

    Post  Chicago Storm on Wed Apr 16, 2008 10:07 pm

    jdrenken wrote:
    Chicago Storm wrote:After the 12utc models the storm still looks very promising...but still a while off. The GFS still shows a 3500 SPC CAPE.

    If you look at the Wichita Falls area, you'll see not 3500...but a 4109 SBCAPE Value! affraid

    Thats pretty high. Have to watch this storm, not ready to jump onboard yet.

    jdrenken
    Thunderstorm
    Thunderstorm

    Posts : 17
    Join date : 2008-04-13
    Age : 44
    Location : Central Missouri

    Re: Apr. 20-24th Severe Weather Potential

    Post  jdrenken on Thu Apr 17, 2008 8:21 am

    SPC is watching...

    ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
    ACUS48 KWNS 170804
    SPC AC 170804

    DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
    NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
    0304 AM CDT THU APR 17 2008

    VALID 201200Z - 251200Z

    ...DISCUSSION...
    MODEL AGREEMENT APPEARS TO HAVE BECOME SUFFICIENT THIS PERIOD TO
    BEGIN TO HONE IN ON SEVERE POTENTIAL IN BOTH SPACE AND TIME. MODELS
    HAVE HINTED AT A SEVERE POTENTIAL OVER THE PLAINS FOR SEVERAL
    DAYS...AS THEY HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING A LARGE TROUGH
    OVER THE WEST...AND DOWNSTREAM CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS.
    WHILE THEY HAVE DIFFERED IN THE DETAILS OF THE EJECTION OF THIS
    TROUGH INTO CENTRAL NOAM...THERE IS NOW SOME AGREEMENT THAT THE
    FIRST SIGNIFICANT PIECE OF THIS TROUGH SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY NEWD
    ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND THEN INTO THE NRN PLAINS DURING THE DAY 4-5
    PERIOD. AS THIS OCCURS...A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE EWD
    ACROSS THE NRN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS SUGGEST
    THAT BY THE AFTERNOON OF DAY 5 /MON. APR. 21/ THE FRONT SHOULD
    EXTEND FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY/WRN UPPER GREAT LAKES SSWWD INTO THE
    OZARKS REGION...AND THEN TRAILING MORE W-E ACROSS OK. THIS BOUNDARY
    IS THEN FORECAST TO LINGER ACROSS OK/N TX DAY 6.

    AS THE FRONT LINGERS ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS DAY 5-6...MODELS INDICATE
    SEVERAL SMALLER-SCALE FEATURES SHIFTING ENEWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS IN
    MODERATELY-STRONG WSWLY SRN STREAM S OF THE MAIN TROUGH/JET. WITH
    THE LIKELIHOOD FOR RICH GULF MOISTURE BENEATH STEEP LAPSE RATES
    ALOFT...INSTABILITY/SHEAR COMBINATION SHOULD BE QUITE SUPPORTIVE OF
    SOME HIGHER-END SEVERE POTENTIAL. WITH THE CURRENT MODEL RUNS
    POINTING AT DAYS 5 AND 6 AS THE PERIOD OF GREATEST THREAT...AND THE
    SRN PLAINS REGION AS THE AREA OF GREATEST POTENTIAL...WILL INTRODUCE
    A THREAT AREA IN THIS REGION.

    jdrenken
    Thunderstorm
    Thunderstorm

    Posts : 17
    Join date : 2008-04-13
    Age : 44
    Location : Central Missouri

    Re: Apr. 20-24th Severe Weather Potential

    Post  jdrenken on Thu Apr 17, 2008 8:23 am

    I should've known better than providing an image link to the models as they change with each new issue. Embarassed study

    tornadoresearch15
    Thunderstorm
    Thunderstorm

    Posts : 14
    Join date : 2008-04-13
    Age : 26
    Location : Champaign/Urbana, Illinois

    Re: Apr. 20-24th Severe Weather Potential

    Post  tornadoresearch15 on Thu Apr 17, 2008 4:34 pm

    Hopefully this gives me a good outbreak. Didn't see anything last time No

    centralplainsstorm
    Thunderstorm
    Thunderstorm

    Posts : 38
    Join date : 2008-04-13
    Age : 27
    Location : Ottawa, Illinois

    Re: Apr. 20-24th Severe Weather Potential

    Post  centralplainsstorm on Thu Apr 17, 2008 5:19 pm


    Sponsored content

    Re: Apr. 20-24th Severe Weather Potential

    Post  Sponsored content


      Current date/time is Sun Sep 23, 2018 7:54 pm