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    Mr Glass half empty Brett Anderson's forcast

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    coolerbythelake
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    Mr Glass half empty Brett Anderson's forcast

    Post  coolerbythelake on Mon Apr 21, 2008 11:35 pm

    According to this dipsheet, it looks like we are heading into winter come May and most of the summer. I really hate this guy, he is always gloomy and loves snow. Keep his ass in Canada. What are you thinking STORM for the month of May? Is this warmth we are seeing a fluke?

    April 28-May 4th

    The model is forecasting a large dip in the jet stream across western Canada then it rides northeastward up toward Labrador.....

    --Unseasonably chilly across much of western Canada.
    --Cooler than normal over western BC, but rainfall slightly below normal.
    --Above-normal precipitation across the Canadian Rockies, which means above-normal snowfall.
    --Wetter pattern compared to normal from eastern Saskatchewan through Manitoba and into northwestern Ontario.
    --Drier and warmer than normal pattern for Atlantic Canada.
    --Milder than normal for Quebec and eastern Ontario, but rainfall near-normal.

    May 5th-11th

    Blocking pattern seems to develop between greenland and Labrador, which forces the jet to dip farther south into the Great Lakes region.....

    --Slightly warmer than normal pattern for BC.
    --Chilly and wet compared to normal for the Yukon Territory.
    --Drier pattern for the Praires, but still slightly cooler than normal.
    --Unseasonably chilly for the Great Lakes, Ontario, southern Quebec and the Northeast U.S.
    --Wet, unsettled pattern from the eastern Great Lakes/southern Ontario through the Northeast U.S.
    --Very warm and dry for the West Coast of the U.S.

    May 12th-18th

    The model is forecasting a major trough (pocket of cool air aloft) over the Great Lakes and Northeastern U.S. this week, while a blocking high persists between Greenland and Labrador.....

    --Unseasonably cool and rather wet for the eastern U.S.
    --Wetter pattern developing over the Maritimes.
    --Cooler than normal with near normal rainfall for central/southwestern/eastern Ontario and southern Quebec.
    --Warmer than normal for Newfoundland.
    --Dry, but cool from northwestern Ontario into the western Great Lakes region.
    --Slightly above-normal temperatures and below-normal precipitation across most of the Prairies.
    --Slightly cooler and wetter than normal for western BC and the Yukon Territory.


    I also took a quick peak at the latest monthly model output and it is hinting at a hot summer for the western U.S. and perhaps western prairies, while the Eastern U.S., including Ontario and Quebec is looking cooler and slightly wetter than normal. Who knows? I will look at a lot more stuff before I come up with my summer forecast. I should have that issued within the next 2-3 weeks.

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    Re: Mr Glass half empty Brett Anderson's forcast

    Post  Chicago Storm on Tue Apr 22, 2008 12:15 am

    I have to say that guy is a load of crap. The rest of April will average above normal, also the begining of May will be above normal. Many warm spells are in our future, with very few cool downs, through Early May. After that i'm not sure, but with a weak La Ninia, I would expect several domes of "heat" to develop in the South around Texas and expand into the Midwest, Tom Skilling has talked about this several times.

    coolerbythelake
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    Re: Mr Glass half empty Brett Anderson's forcast

    Post  coolerbythelake on Tue Apr 22, 2008 9:54 am

    Thanks storm,

    I figured the same thing. According to Brett, we were suppose to freeze all month long in April. Tom does keep hinting at heat domes bubbling up so yes I take Tom's side over that dope anyday. God I swear that guy is on vicadin, so dreary all the time.

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    Re: Mr Glass half empty Brett Anderson's forcast

    Post  coolerbythelake on Wed Apr 23, 2008 9:12 am

    Strom,

    After next weeks early cool down, you seeing a bump up again after Tuesday? I am not good in handling weal la ninas so what else you seeing say mid-month. Are we out of the woods for freezes most important?

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    Re: Mr Glass half empty Brett Anderson's forcast

    Post  coolerbythelake on Wed Apr 23, 2008 11:35 pm

    8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAY 01 - 07 2008: FOR WEEK 2 THE GFS SUPERENSEMBLE AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEANS INDICATE A SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION AND SLIGHT DEAMPLIFICATION OF THE 500-HPA CIRCULATION PATTERN FROM THAT DEPICTED DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. THE 0Z AND 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE SIMILAR TO THE GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN. THE 0Z AND 6Z OPERATIONAL GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH EACH OTHER BUT GENERALLY ARE MORE AMPLIFED THAN THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS. THE BLEND CHART SHOWS NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES, MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, AND ALASKA, WHILE NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST ALONG THE EAST COAST AND OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. AS HEIGHTS SLOWLY RISE OVER THE EAST/CENTRAL CONUS, THE AREA OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FORECAST OVER THE WEST/CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD WILL SPREAD SLOWLY EAST/NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY. PRECIPIATION IS LIKELY TO BE BELOW MEDIAN OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS AS A RIDGE BUILDS TOWARD THE AREA. A TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL LIKELY CAUSE ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION OVER MUCH OF THE WEST AND CENTRAL CONUS. THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF 15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...AND 40 PERCENT OF TODAY'S CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS ABOUT AVERAGE... 3 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5 DUE TO FAIR AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS AND FORECAST TOOLS.

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    Re: Mr Glass half empty Brett Anderson's forcast

    Post  Chicago Storm on Sun Apr 27, 2008 9:33 pm

    coolerbythelake wrote:Strom,

    After next weeks early cool down, you seeing a bump up again after Tuesday? I am not good in handling weal la ninas so what else you seeing say mid-month. Are we out of the woods for freezes most important?
    Hey, sorry its taken me a few days to reply.

    Well looks like Monday Night will be the be chance for a freeze as temps. should fall to the low 30's, and maybe upper 20's out toward Rockford. Later in the week it looks like we will warm back into the 60's by Wednesday, and the 70's by Thursday! Very Happy

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