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Looking into the months of June, July, August, and September 15th, it appears that as La Nina folds, which it has just about, and should be months end, we roll into summer fast and furious. I completeley disagree with Joe Bastard's forecast for the summer as he fails to look at other factors, like tropical development and what not. Regarding temps, here we go...
JUNE: Starts seasonal the first week, temps in the midwest averaging about normal, with a noticable ramp up around the 8th or so, and that is when the temps will run the table above normal the rest of the month. Expect June to be warm and tempered in humidity at first, but by week 2, there will be a big time jump in humidity and the AC will be running once again. I expect temps to reach hot stages after the 22nd of the month where a string of 2 to 3 90 degree days may sear us.
JULY: It's going to be hot one, not a pressure cooker, but again ecpect temps over the month to average about a degree or two above norms. There should be a punch of pleasant air around the July 4th hoiday so expect a full go with plans as a nice reprive will settle in for the weekend with temps moderating a few degrees each day as the air warms and moistens. Temps reall crank around the 11th with a shot at 100 around the 17-21st of the the month. We stay hot and rather muggy especially the back half of the month. True midwestern summer weather for all.
August: Humid and lousy with oppressive humidities day and night although a brief flip in the pattern may occur around the 20th or so as a blocking pattern may briefly disrupt the humid pattern for a week perhaps. Increased tropical weather will keep any block short and brief as those systems will keep the heat on coming. Temps average near normal to perhaps a degree below if the block locks in for a week.
September: Hot at first, then a transition to mild and pleasant as signs already suggest a long pleasant fall may be in the works, as traditionally, dying la ninas tend to produce. Should be a normal month but a month of big heat the first week then resort like weather the remainder of the month.
Precipitation is as follows...
June: T-stroms will be prevelant during the first week as the summer pattern begins to take hold and la nina goes to the obituary column (thank god) We should see a month of very dry weather as a possible drought pattern re emerges especially for the lower midwest despite the ubundent spring rains. 4 to 6 t-strm days, limited severe, and dry is king all month long. Garden variety storms in areas downstate where the soils are moister.
July: Dry dry dry, just not seeing much as far as organized rains. I expect the east coast to be the favored spot for tropical landfalls this year so the midwest could in fact miss out on all tropical left overs including the Gulf where Texas seems the most likley to see any action. Storms will be hit and miss as you would expect, but the sprinklers should see plenty of action.
August: A coniuation of the dry pattern with perhaps some storminess if the pattern breaks down for a week or so. This will need to be watched but it is very likely that the drought pattern will shift north and could, could be an indicator to the winter as this time the eastern seaboard stays wet through winter and we go dry for the winter. More on that later.
September: Week one dry and then a little moisture from time to time but for most of the midwest, this is a dry time as pattern are flat and slooow. Farmers may have a tough crop this year, do not think the tropics will help. but all in all, should be a good summer for outdoor activities and what not.
As always, stop look and listen to the weather around you and enjoy!
JUNE: Starts seasonal the first week, temps in the midwest averaging about normal, with a noticable ramp up around the 8th or so, and that is when the temps will run the table above normal the rest of the month. Expect June to be warm and tempered in humidity at first, but by week 2, there will be a big time jump in humidity and the AC will be running once again. I expect temps to reach hot stages after the 22nd of the month where a string of 2 to 3 90 degree days may sear us.
JULY: It's going to be hot one, not a pressure cooker, but again ecpect temps over the month to average about a degree or two above norms. There should be a punch of pleasant air around the July 4th hoiday so expect a full go with plans as a nice reprive will settle in for the weekend with temps moderating a few degrees each day as the air warms and moistens. Temps reall crank around the 11th with a shot at 100 around the 17-21st of the the month. We stay hot and rather muggy especially the back half of the month. True midwestern summer weather for all.
August: Humid and lousy with oppressive humidities day and night although a brief flip in the pattern may occur around the 20th or so as a blocking pattern may briefly disrupt the humid pattern for a week perhaps. Increased tropical weather will keep any block short and brief as those systems will keep the heat on coming. Temps average near normal to perhaps a degree below if the block locks in for a week.
September: Hot at first, then a transition to mild and pleasant as signs already suggest a long pleasant fall may be in the works, as traditionally, dying la ninas tend to produce. Should be a normal month but a month of big heat the first week then resort like weather the remainder of the month.
Precipitation is as follows...
June: T-stroms will be prevelant during the first week as the summer pattern begins to take hold and la nina goes to the obituary column (thank god) We should see a month of very dry weather as a possible drought pattern re emerges especially for the lower midwest despite the ubundent spring rains. 4 to 6 t-strm days, limited severe, and dry is king all month long. Garden variety storms in areas downstate where the soils are moister.
July: Dry dry dry, just not seeing much as far as organized rains. I expect the east coast to be the favored spot for tropical landfalls this year so the midwest could in fact miss out on all tropical left overs including the Gulf where Texas seems the most likley to see any action. Storms will be hit and miss as you would expect, but the sprinklers should see plenty of action.
August: A coniuation of the dry pattern with perhaps some storminess if the pattern breaks down for a week or so. This will need to be watched but it is very likely that the drought pattern will shift north and could, could be an indicator to the winter as this time the eastern seaboard stays wet through winter and we go dry for the winter. More on that later.
September: Week one dry and then a little moisture from time to time but for most of the midwest, this is a dry time as pattern are flat and slooow. Farmers may have a tough crop this year, do not think the tropics will help. but all in all, should be a good summer for outdoor activities and what not.
As always, stop look and listen to the weather around you and enjoy!
