Apr. 20-24th Severe Weather Potential

I know it is a long way out but now we have a lot of time to watch this storm evolve

The title of htis topic has been switched from 4/27 severe possibility to Apr. 23-26th severe possibility. As there will be several waves that move through and bring in big warmth and the potential for severe storms.

That sounds good

Chicago Storm wrote:The title of htis topic has been switched from 4/27 severe possibility to Apr. 23-26th severe possibility. As there will be several waves that move through and bring in big warmth and the potential for severe storms.

Yeah...on the Accuweather forums, we have no fewer than 3 possible severe weather topics for the days starting 4/17 thru 4/23...and that doesn't count the future 4/28 storm.

jdrenken wrote:

Chicago Storm wrote:The title of htis topic has been switched from 4/27 severe possibility to Apr. 23-26th severe possibility. As there will be several waves that move through and bring in big warmth and the potential for severe storms.

Yeah...on the Accuweather forums, we have no fewer than 3 possible severe weather topics for the days starting 4/17 thru 4/23...and that doesn't count the future 4/28 storm.

I'm going to try and keep it a bit more neat in hearere isn't much confusion about severe weather days/storms.

This could be a good outbreak....warm temps., moisture, and dynamics will be there, but how storng will the cap be.

Chicago Storm wrote:This could be a good outbreak....warm temps., moisture, and dynamics will be there, but how storng will the cap be.

Yes the darn cap... but it has to break sometime!!! Good forum by the way Chicago storm..

The SPC CAPE for Tuesday evening is all the way up to 4000. Thats pretty high, and with a temp. near 80F and dew points of 65-70F,this could mean explosive thunderstorm development.

I touched base on that in accuweather forum.

EDIT: 500mb vv is -4 -- -6 in the same region as the CAPE. Surface temps are going to be mid-70's with dew points in the upper 60's.

jdrenken wrote:I touched base on that in accuweather forum.

EDIT: 500mb vv is -4 -- -6 in the same region as the CAPE. Surface temps are going to be mid-70's with dew points in the upper 60's.

This could turn out to be a pretty big outbreak. But thats what we said last week and it wasn't that bad, so we will see.

This mornings models are not going as strong with possible severe storms, but the strong dynamics are still ther including a 3000 SPC CAPE.

I'm thinking that the "x" will be in the Texarkana area. SLI's are pointing to -10 -- -12 for 00Z23APR!

After the 12utc models the storm still looks very promising...but still a while off. The GFS still shows a 3500 SPC CAPE.

ok where do you get CAPE from for periods of time that are far out?

That map above has a good amount of CAPE here...around 2000 or so. My attention has been caught

i dont think there will be any severe weather over these days but rain and a few thunderstorms are likley

centralplainsstorm wrote:ok where do you get CAPE from for periods of time that are far out?

There are a few different websites you can go.

http://www.arl.noaa.gov/ready/animations.html

Far right side is the long range model.

College of Dupage

Pick your model and go with it!

Weather Underground

I've started to lean away from this one.

http://www.arl.noaa.gov/data/forecasts/grads/gfs/panel8/plt26.gif

there are some pretty good LI's

Chicago Storm wrote:After the 12utc models the storm still looks very promising...but still a while off. The GFS still shows a 3500 SPC CAPE.

If you look at the Wichita Falls area, you'll see not 3500...but a 4109 SBCAPE Value!

jdrenken wrote:

Chicago Storm wrote:After the 12utc models the storm still looks very promising...but still a while off. The GFS still shows a 3500 SPC CAPE.

If you look at the Wichita Falls area, you'll see not 3500...but a 4109 SBCAPE Value!

Thats pretty high. Have to watch this storm, not ready to jump onboard yet.

SPC is watching...

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 170804
SPC AC 170804

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0304 AM CDT THU APR 17 2008

VALID 201200Z - 251200Z

...DISCUSSION...
MODEL AGREEMENT APPEARS TO HAVE BECOME SUFFICIENT THIS PERIOD TO
BEGIN TO HONE IN ON SEVERE POTENTIAL IN BOTH SPACE AND TIME. MODELS
HAVE HINTED AT A SEVERE POTENTIAL OVER THE PLAINS FOR SEVERAL
DAYS...AS THEY HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING A LARGE TROUGH
OVER THE WEST...AND DOWNSTREAM CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS.
WHILE THEY HAVE DIFFERED IN THE DETAILS OF THE EJECTION OF THIS
TROUGH INTO CENTRAL NOAM...THERE IS NOW SOME AGREEMENT THAT THE
FIRST SIGNIFICANT PIECE OF THIS TROUGH SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY NEWD
ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND THEN INTO THE NRN PLAINS DURING THE DAY 4-5
PERIOD. AS THIS OCCURS...A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE EWD
ACROSS THE NRN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS SUGGEST
THAT BY THE AFTERNOON OF DAY 5 /MON. APR. 21/ THE FRONT SHOULD
EXTEND FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY/WRN UPPER GREAT LAKES SSWWD INTO THE
OZARKS REGION...AND THEN TRAILING MORE W-E ACROSS OK. THIS BOUNDARY
IS THEN FORECAST TO LINGER ACROSS OK/N TX DAY 6.

AS THE FRONT LINGERS ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS DAY 5-6...MODELS INDICATE
SEVERAL SMALLER-SCALE FEATURES SHIFTING ENEWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS IN
MODERATELY-STRONG WSWLY SRN STREAM S OF THE MAIN TROUGH/JET. WITH
THE LIKELIHOOD FOR RICH GULF MOISTURE BENEATH STEEP LAPSE RATES
ALOFT...INSTABILITY/SHEAR COMBINATION SHOULD BE QUITE SUPPORTIVE OF
SOME HIGHER-END SEVERE POTENTIAL. WITH THE CURRENT MODEL RUNS
POINTING AT DAYS 5 AND 6 AS THE PERIOD OF GREATEST THREAT...AND THE
SRN PLAINS REGION AS THE AREA OF GREATEST POTENTIAL...WILL INTRODUCE
A THREAT AREA IN THIS REGION.

I should've known better than providing an image link to the models as they change with each new issue.

Hopefully this gives me a good outbreak. Didn't see anything last time